Ergane AgentResearch & Strategy
Closed Beta — Invitation Only

Fashion & beauty,
read in the world's numbers.

A research and strategy agent for the questions executives actually ask. It reads industry knowledge spanning 24 countries and 1,000 companies as primary sources, establishes where you stand in numbers, and builds the outlook that follows. Every figure carries its source and its as-of date.

Ergane Agent is in closed beta. Access is by invitation code only.

The Questions

Start from the questions that decide things.

Producing indicators is not the point. Ask the question you actually have to answer.

  1. 01

    Where do we stand among our peers, right now?

    Place the company inside the distribution of its category and its market, and read its position from revenue growth, margins, share-price momentum and market capitalisation. Counted, not sensed.

  2. 02

    Will the same way of winning still work in five years?

    Read demographics and macroeconomic indicators, forty years of temperature records, and the revenue growth of the covered companies against one another, and separate the tailwinds from the headwinds.

  3. 03

    What did the winner next door change in order to win?

    Pick the companies winning and losing against the same structural problem, and compare what differed across their corporate-event histories and their results.

  4. 04

    Which styles and techniques are gaining attention now?

    Read the design vocabulary against the news collection, and carry it through to the brands and the listed companies behind them.

The Outputs

Figures and tables, drawn straight from the data.

Three outputs built straight from the knowledge. Each carries the reference date of its own series, because the series do not share one.

Exhibit 1
Chart how concentrated market value is in the largest companies.
01LVMHFrance6.8%02L'OréalFrance6.4%03InditexSpain5.6%04HermèsFrance5.1%05TJXUnited States4.0%06RichemontSwitzerland3.7%07UnileverUnited Kingdom3.7%08Fast RetailingJapan3.7%09Christian DiorFrance2.3%10EssilorLuxotticaFrance2.2%
  • 43.4%Top 10 companies
  • 73.6%Top 50 companies
  • 84.4%Top 100 companies
  • 92.3%Top 200 companies
Share of the total market value of the covered companies — 967 companies worth ¥598.7tn in aggregate.
SourcesMarket data providers (share prices, market value)as of August 2026
Exhibit 2
Aggregate the covered companies by country and put the result in a table.
CountryCompaniesMarket value1-year priceRevenue YoYOperating margin
France13¥142.9tn-7.6%-1.1%15.7%
United States105¥135.9tn+3.0%+2.2%5.1%
Japan172¥57.4tn+7.8%+4.4%5.1%
United Kingdom28¥42.9tn+12.7%+1.0%7.6%
China145¥39.4tn-15.5%+3.4%9.4%
Switzerland8¥38.5tn+25.7%-1.1%3.7%
India87¥37.6tn-14.0%+11.0%9.4%
Spain5¥35.4tn+22.0%+1.8%12.0%
Germany11¥13.8tn-2.8%+4.0%1.7%
Mexico7¥12.5tn+3.2%+1.7%8.4%
South Korea99¥9.9tn-10.3%+1.9%5.5%
Taiwan88¥8.8tn-9.5%+4.9%4.3%
Medians. The largest 12 of 24 countries by aggregate market value.
SourcesMarket data providers (share prices, market value); company filings (revenue, profit)as of August 2026
Exhibit 3
Chart how the monthly average temperature of each representative city has shifted over forty years.
JFMAMJJASONDYearBerlin+2.1Stockholm+1.8Copenhagen+1.8Milan+1.8Istanbul+1.8Zurich+1.6Paris+1.6Shanghai+1.5Mexico City+1.4São Paulo+1.4Seoul+1.4London+1.3Taipei+1.3New York+1.3Tokyo+1.2Madrid+1.2Sydney+1.1Johannesburg+0.8Jakarta+0.6Karachi+0.4Mumbai+0.4Bangkok+0.3Ho Chi Minh City-0.6Dhaka-0.7
coolerwarmer
Difference in monthly average temperature, 1981-1990 against 2016-2025.
SourcesMeteorological reanalysis (monthly mean temperature)as of August 2026
The Reports

The reports.

Not written for this page. These already sit in the knowledge — one line of conclusion taken from each. Ask the agent the same question and it rebuilds the analysis from the same data.

Valuation

Where value is cheap, and where it is dear

Differences in price-to-book are largely explained by differences in return on equity. The layer that makes things trades below book — valued under what it would fetch broken up.

0.99×Median price-to-book of the making layer
as of August 2026
Share prices

Five years of winners and losers

The median five-year return was -5.5%. The 198 companies that halved outnumber the 142 that doubled — a barbell of a five years.

-5.5%Median five-year return, 852 companies
as of August 2026
Brands and people

Does changing the creative director move the numbers?

Excess return in the twelve months after an appointment: -12.6%. In the twelve months before: -27.3%. They were falling before the change, not because of it.

-27.3%Median excess return in the 12 months before appointment
as of August 2026
Strategy

A playbook for shrinking markets

Companies in the six shrinking markets win 30.8% of the time, level with the 30.2% in growing ones. A falling population is not a verdict — it redefines what winning looks like.

30.8%Win rate in shrinking markets, 139 of 452
as of August 2026
Climate and season

Heat as the new normal, and the summer season

Months averaging above 28°C across the 24 cities rose from 268 to 314. The heat has started entering temperate cities that had none.

+2.75°CChange in Berlin's summer mean, 1981-90 to 2016-25
as of August 2026
Supply

Ten years of production moving

Apparel exports: China ×0.92 against Vietnam ×1.80. Yet China still exported 5.1 times what Vietnam did in 2023 — the shift is real, the replacement is not.

×1.80Vietnam's apparel exports, 2013 to 2023
as of August 2026
Design

Attention on the design vocabulary

Attention is decaying across the board (median ×0.77), which makes anything above ×1.0 already a relative win. Only 27 of 149 entries grew.

27Entries that grew in relative terms, of 149
as of August 2026
Profitability

The map of operating losses

101 of 595 companies do not earn from their core business. None of the global majors do — the losses live in the smaller middle.

17.0%Share of companies losing money on their core business
as of August 2026
The Difference

Ordinary research does not reach this.

The difference is not the model's cleverness. It is the ground it stands on. Nothing begins with collection when the question arrives — the gathering, the structuring and the dating are already done.

  1. The population is fixed

    Ask a web search how many companies are losing money on their core business and it cannot answer: nothing defines what is being counted. Here the population is fixed at 1,000 companies across 24 countries, and it can be counted on the spot.

  2. The preparation is finished

    Comparing revenue across borders starts with reconciling 24 currencies. Those rates are in place for 200 months, and every company sits on one row of 49 columns. Aggregation starts at the answer, not at the plumbing.

  3. Things that live apart sit on one shelf

    Reading forty years of temperature against company results, or tracing where orders moved from trade statistics — those questions only exist because both sides are structured the same way and dated the same way.

  4. The same question returns the same answer

    Figures carry their reference date; conclusions carry their sources. The verification step on the reader's side disappears, and that is where the hours actually go.

  • 229,698Weekly share-price observations, 925 companies over five years
  • 13,128Monthly city temperature readings, 24 cities, no gaps
  • 14,136Rows of textile and apparel trade, 2010 onward
  • 9,539News collection records, 60 countries, daily

as of August 2026

What used to take weeks to gather and days to reconcile now starts at the question. What reaches the executive is not a faster summary — it is material that can be decided on.

The Method

The future is built from the data too.

Asked what happens next, this agent does not paraphrase an article or a company's own plan. It measures against 1,000 companies and builds its own view — including the conditions under which that view breaks.

  1. I

    Fix the position in numbers

    Place the subject inside the industry's distribution — same category, same market, same role in the value chain — and actually compute where it sits. No diagnosis, no proposal.

  2. II

    Borrow the ruler

    Where a covered report has already framed the same question, use its measure — what it measured with. The figures themselves are recalculated here rather than copied across.

  3. III

    Use the web for facts only

    Results, announcements and plans dated after the knowledge are filled in from the web, cited by URL and kept separate from what the knowledge says. Never the web's opinion as the answer.

  4. IV

    Write it as my view

    A conclusion carries the data it was read from, and the falsifying condition: what would have to happen for this view to change. The company's own plan and this agent's assessment stay apart.

  5. V

    Then design the move

    Asked what to actually do, it answers in three parts: the diagnosis in numbers, two to four options, and one recommendation — each option carrying the conditions it works under and the risk that kills it. It does not recommend buying or selling; that question is recast in business terms.

An outlook is not there to be right. It is there to show how it would break.

The Knowledge

What is inside.

  • 1,000Companies
  • 24Countries & regions
  • 50Reports
  • 312News outlets

Knowledge as of August 2026

  1. CompaniesA profile for each company, and an integrated fact table of share price, market capitalisation, revenue growth and news mentions.
  2. MarketsWeekly share prices, results and corporate-event histories. Demographic and macroeconomic indicators by country.
  3. ContextMonthly temperatures for representative cities (1981–2025) and climate indicators. Seasonality read against company results.
  4. VocabularyDesign knowledge of styles, techniques, traditional dress, materials and designers — connecting brands through to listed companies.
Measured by
  • Market data providersShare prices, market value, valuation multiples, FX
  • Statutory company filingsAnnual and quarterly revenue and profit
  • International trade statisticsTextile and apparel trade, 2010 onward
  • International economic statisticsPopulation, GDP, inflation by country
  • International climate dataCountry climate indicators
  • Meteorological reanalysisMonthly city temperatures, 1981-2025
  • Public encyclopaedia pageviewsAttention on brands, designers and styles
  • Publisher feedsDaily news collection across 60 countries
Who

It sits beside the people who decide.

Corporate strategy & IR

Where your growth and your valuation sit among peers around the world, with the figures a board paper needs and the sources standing behind them.

Merchandising & planning

How mild winters and severe summers, now the norm, work through your category mix. Forty years of city temperatures read against company results.

Brand & creative

Which styles, techniques and materials are gaining attention, traced from the vocabulary to the brands and the companies that carry them.

Enquiries

Everyday questions, as they are.

Requests you can send word for word — from a check before a meeting to a single chart. Log in and the rest of the list is on the screen.

Look up

  • What is in the knowledge you are connected to? Tell me the main kinds and the as-of date of each.
  • Give me the essentials on ZOZO: business overview, main brands, and revenue and operating profit for the latest full year.
  • List the companies covered in the watch category in Japan.

Count

  • Aggregate the covered companies by category and give me the top five.
  • Aggregate the covered companies in South Korea by category, most to least.
  • What share of companies grew revenue year on year? Also give me the top three countries by that share.

Compare

  • Put ASICS, PUMA and adidas side by side on market capitalisation, one-year share price change and revenue growth.
  • Compare Japan and South Korea by their mix of roles in the value chain (making / branding / selling and consuming).
  • In beauty, sort out what separates the companies up on the year from those down on the year.

Chart

  • Chart the ten largest covered companies in China by market capitalisation.
  • Plot revenue growth against one-year share price change as a scatter, and tell me whether there is a tendency.
  • Chart five years of weekly share prices for Seiko Group, with the background to the big moves.
About the Beta

About the beta.

Who can use it?
Only holders of a specific code can use it.
What does it answer from?
It answers from a specific body of knowledge data.
What if I ask about something not covered?
It separates that out — “not in the knowledge” — and fills in from the web where that helps. Web material is cited by URL and marked as not yet reflected in the knowledge.
Are conversations kept?
Your conversation history is stored in your own browser. It does not follow you to another device or another browser.
Can it advise on investments?
No. It does not recommend buying or selling, and recasts the question in business terms — customers, product, channel and supply.
Can we bring our own data?
During the beta it works only with the registered knowledge. Please send requests to the administrator.